The time has come the Walrus said
To speak of many things
Of Senates—Of races—and filibusters—
Of polls—and vicious slings
And why Harry Reid still reigns–
And whether liberty rings…
Now as I’ve said before the Electoral College seems to be leaning to a Romney win, but that win will mean nothing if the Democrats remain in control of even a house of Congress. Keep in mind Obama is already blaming Republicans for doing nothing in Congress when it is the Senate under Harry Reid that is not bringing any bills up for vote even though House has passed bills that the Senate needs to vote on (but remember, in defiance of all facts, the Republicans are obstructionists).
So, while the presidency isn’t a sure thing (although the odds are in our favor) it might be best to look at the Senate races before we start ushering in a new era of conservatism with Romney. (I’d look at the House but with the economy, the lack luster coattails of Obama and the threat of putting Nancy Pelosi back in charge, I don’t think we’re likely to lose the House). Granted what we would really like is 60 votes to ensure we always have cloture on votes (we can get them voted on). But I always figure there are seven or eight blue dogs (or at least a few Dems who have to run in 2014) hanging around so we’ll probably be in decent shape if we can get to 53 votes in the Senate.
So where do we stand right now?
Well According to RealClearPolitics, based on current polls we are at 47 safe or leaning Democrat seats and 45 safe or leaning Republican states (when you count the seats not up for a vote) and 8 tossups.
But as with all things there is always a deeper level. RealClearPolitics, like any news agency survives on advertising, and as such makes money the more it brings you back to their site. If they declared that the Senate was going to swing Republican and there is nothing you can do about, no one would bother to keep checking the Race for the Senate seats more than once a month. Non-battles don’t get press….so it is in their best interest to have a wide definition of toss up so as to get more people looking for information. It’s not lying but, it’s also not a straight reporting of the facts.
So let’s look at some of these Toss-Up States. (Keep in mind I’m working off limited data here).
First a word. Now with the Electoral College I’ve been using the assumptions that in the end undecided voters tend to break 2 to 1 against the incumbent. This logic doesn’t always apply here. There are several seats that are open. Further, will people be voting against the incumbent Senator or the incumbent party (i.e., Democrats)? Now if the incumbent is a Democrat it might be easier to assume that the undecided vote will break for the challenger, but I can’t be sure of the 2 to 1 ratio. Whereas as of right now, with the limited data I have, it might be safe to assume that if the incumbent is a Republican the undecided vote is probably going to split pretty evenly.
You have Wisconsin. Now the Wisconsin Republican Primary hasn’t been held for the Senate Race but currently it looks like Thompson is ahead by double digits and will likely face off against Baldwin…at which point Wisconsin continues to favor Republicans like Scott Walker and Thompson will win, possibly by double digits, in “toss-up” Wisconsin. Dems 47-GOP 46.
Next we have Nevada, where Heller is consistently up even in heavily biased PPP polls. Granted, there’s nothing terribly recent in terms of likely voter polls…but I get the feeling that so long as we aren’t running a Palin picked candidate (liberal at heart Palin can sure pick losers) Nevada is probably tired of Democrats constantly insulting their state and hurting business. Dems 47-GOP 47.
Yes in a more recent Mason-Dixon Poll the Democrats are up, but given that it’s within margin of error and given that it is currently controlled by a Democrat (hence the undecided vote will go against the Democrats), the anti-Obama feelings will likely push N. Dakota into the red column. I’ll admit this is a weak prediction, but I don’t have a lot of data to work with here. Dems 47-GOP 48.
Now Missouri is a tad trickier…the GOP primary hasn’t taken place yet and there is no clear winner yet. However, given that all three candidates outdo the sitting Democrat, it’s probably a safe call to say that Missouri is going to switch to the GOP. Dems 47-GOP 49.
And to round off 50 votes we have Montana where Republicans lead in legitimate polls and hold their own in BS PPP polls. Dems 47-GOP 50.
At this point with 50 votes the GOP would control the Senate as Romney’s VP (oh please let it be Ryan) would be the tie breaking vote. But let’s look at the other races.
In Massachusetts we have Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth “Dances with Bullshit” Warren. As Warren continues to dig herself a deeper and deeper grave with the Pow-Wow Chow, while still up in the air, I think Brown, with the help of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, should be able to pull out a win. 47-51.
Turning down South we hit Florida, the source of so many election headaches.
Now technically the polls show the Democrats up in all of the polls, but notice that one is PPP, which can just be thrown out, and the others are registered voter polls, which means move the final number two or three points to the right. Another close Republican victory…assuming we don’t have a rigged recount Dade county again.
And of the toss up states all we have left is Virginia…which I have no idea. The most recent polls has the GOP up…but it’s one poll in a sea of polls having the Democrat up (much older polls) but I have no reason to not believe this most recent one is an outlier…time will tell. So with Florida and Virginia we could be as high as 47-53 (but that is could, not will unless we dedicate time, energy and money to all of these).
Now let’s talk about some long shots. Now Connecticut and New Mexico are close, not spectacularly close, but not out of the realm of possibility to see a shift. Depending on how much the GOP wants to spend and how much time Romney spends in these states (New Mexico especially, it’s a weaker state for Obama) I would not be surprised to see one of them turn (keep in mind the Connecticut seat is the one being vacated by conservative-Democrat Joe Lieberman…a liberal Republican could stand a chance).
And last but not least I want to talk about three really long shots. Ohio, Washington and California. Ohio has Democratic Sherrod Brown defending his seat. This is a man who has railed against the correct Supreme Court Citizens United decision since the day it was passed because it doesn’t allow him to have the advantage union money used to give him. This corrupt piece of shit deserves to go down in whatever the political equivalent of the phrase “to the pain” is. It is unlikely that he will lose his seat, but I would be very happy to this man go. As for the two west coast states with a Senator up…they’re pretty safe…except that even liberals are getting tired of their rhetoric…and we could manage to pull off a Romney landslide (not impossible) that is if it is clear Romney will win hours before the California and Washington polls close that might be just enough to discourage liberals from coming out to vote and swinging those seats in our favor…long shots, but stranger things have happened. My point with these last three are if you have some spare cash and want to make a long shot investment…look to the GOP senators in the West.
Overall we are looking at a safe bet of taking back the Senate…not have the 60 votes necessary to push everything through without making deals, but back in control to where we let things come up to vote. But we are close enough that this is not a hopeless fight…we are close enough that giving all we have for every last vote will actually lead to results. Now again this should not be taken as a call to relax…no, with every vote closer to 60 we get in the Senate, more and more conservative proposals can get through without Democratic compromises. We need to get as close as possible, and time, energy and money will get us there.