A new look at the Electoral College

So some of my conservative friends are getting worried that Romney’s chances are looking down.  This is not the case.  Not only is Romney up but it’s beginning to look like Romney only has to avoid making a major blunder, pick a solid VP and just tie in the debates and he will win easily (all three are pretty easy) as the person who seems to be working the hardest to get Romney elected turns out to be Obama’s mouth (with Bill Clinton coming in a close second).

But there are things that are making some conservatives nervous like the recent Bloomberg poll that shows Obama up 13 points.  This is a fascinating poll if you get into the details.  Unlike every other likely voter poll which shows Romney ahead or a least tied, Bloomberg exists in its own special universe where Obama is untouchable.  Every expert on polling says that while Obama does well with minorities, women, those 29 and younger, the uneducated and poor, every expert (right and left) agrees that turnout of these groups will be down from their record 2008 numbers across the board.   Now it’s hard to get exact numbers, but it appears the Bloomberg people seem to think that the African-American vote will increase by a point and the Hispanic vote will increase by 4 points, also the 18-29 vote will go up by about 3 points…and the rest of their “likely voter” model also looks off based on common sense but I couldn’t find accurate data to refute it…but no matter how you look at it grossly oversampling groups you know are disproportionately supporting Obama makes the entire methodology seem questionable at best.  Especially when more states have Voter ID laws and are clearly the voter rolls of solidly Democratic illegal and undead voters.

Liberals are getting desperate.

Why are they getting desperate?  Because the Electoral College numbers are not good for Obama.

But, but, but Obama is ahead in the Electoral College right now you say?

According to RealClearPolitics the average of their polls leave Obama with 227 votes, Romney with 170 and 147 undecided.  But that’s not the whole story.

As Dick Morris has been saying for months, historically the undecided vote always breaks two-to-one in favor of the challenger (Romney).  So when you calculate that fact in then Romney picks up another 79 electoral votes brining Romney up to 249 votes (with another 29 votes within one point of difference)

Click for larger view.

But this still is not the complete story as these averages include registered voter polls as well as likely voter polls which we all know are biased toward Democrats.  But rather than pick out all the registered voter polls I’m going to focus on three states Colorado, Missouri and Michigan and remove the registered voter polls from the Democratic polling firm PPP which is without a doubt one of the worst polling firms in existence, as I have pointed out before.

When you take out PPP’s grossly questionable numbers all three states and their 35 votes go to Romney…total of 284 votes (or 14 more than he needs).

Plus this still leaves Wisconsin, which just gave the death knell to public sector unions, within 1 point…and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan is in the lead for VP…do you think that might swing it by a 1%?

Right now this is more or less what the country would look like if the vote was held today (6/25)

Yes that still leaves it very close for Romney in a lot of states.  But when you factor in the likely death of Obamacare coming up, a massive scandal that is Fast & Furious, more statements like “The private sector is doing fine” and other such implosions do you really think Obama is going to be able to raise his numbers?  Do you really think Mitt’s constant, factual, and strong attacks on Obama won’t gain him some more points?

It’s not a done deal so much so that Romney can just go back to his California home and just surf for the rest of the summer…but right now the odds are in Romney’s favor and if he doesn’t drop the ball, come January, Obama will be evicted from the people’s house and real recovery can begin.


Filed under Conservative, Economics, Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Obama, politics

4 responses to “A new look at the Electoral College

  1. Reblogged this on Election 2012 Coverage and commented:
    This is a great blog post about Electoral College projections right now. Romney could win big in November!

  2. This makes me feel a little better.

  3. Pingback: The Outlook on Control of the Senate | The Conservative New Ager

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