Daily Archives: May 15, 2012

Obama’s Short-Sighted Campaign and his Idiotic Stand on Gay Marriage

Obama and his team are running a laughably pathetic campaign.  It’s mildly to be expected, the thrill is gone, and you’d have to be dumber than Joe Biden to want to run on that record.  But still, there are some dumb moments…like

Is Newsweek trying to hurt Obama?…also I think Lincoln actually has right to that title.

claiming the New York Times is biased against Obama…uh-huh.

The latest major misstep is that Obama is now for gay marriage.  Well, kinda (he thinks it’s a state’s rights issues).  Sorta (he’s not going to push for the Defense of Marriage Act to be overturned).

Now before I lay into Obama for how stupid a move this was, let’s make a few things clear.  First, I have no dog in the gay marriage fight.  I think both sides are stupid.  Marriage is a religious institution and should not be in any legal code.  Legal codes should offer civil unions to any two adults that want one.  That would protect the religious institution from government meddling and would give everyone equality under the law….but as of yet it appears the majority of the nation is squabbling over two options, both equally stupid.  Second, you’re a moron’s moron, if you’re voting for or against Romney or Obama for their positions on gay marriage.  Really you’re just about as dumb as it gets. The economy, foreign policy, the size of government, the sacrosanct nature of the Constitution and private property, healthcare reform, immigration reform, all of these are far, far more important whether or not the government issues a piece of paper when two people love each other (yes there are private property issues entangled with the concept of marriage, but last time I checked Romney seems willing to endorse civil unions that cover all those private property rights, and Obama seems viciously opposed to private property rights for straight couples, gay couples, and single people of all orientations).  So for liberals who are voting for Obama because of this stance, you’re idiots.  And for conservatives who are now voting for Romney (after your first choice, the ever psychotic Rick Santorum dropped out) only because he says marriage is between a man and a woman, you’re also idiots.

Okay, that said, let’s deal with the pragmatic realities of this choice.

First off, let’s dismiss this as Obama making a principled choice.  If it was a principled choice, then the pragmatics of how it will affect his reelection wouldn’t be important, but it’s not a principled stand.  As my friend, The Snark Who Hunts Back, points out it’s a little hypocritical for Obama to say that this is a state’s rights issue when he has opposed the 10th Amendment at every turn (healthcare, enforcing federal immigration laws, voter laws, just to name a few).  And the fact that one in six of Obama’s high dollar bundler’s being gay also makes this ring a little hollow.  (And keep in mind it appears he did this to make a mere 60 million dollars…not exactly a high price for a politician).  (The actual number is about $12 million so far but I figure that the long term effect is going to be in the ballpark of $60 million, but I’ll admit this is a guess).

So if this isn’t a principled move, it’s a political one.  And a very dumb one at that.  One of Romney’s remaining problems was with the marginally unstable Santorum supporters who weren’t going to vote for a Mormon who passed gay marriage in Massachusetts. But low and behold Obama just gave this wacky bunch who considers social issues to be more important than those pesky economic and foreign policy issues that might actually have an effect on their lives a big reason to vote against Obama, even if they’re not still utterly thrilled with an economic conservative like Romney.  So what Obama just did there is shore up Romney’s base.  Did it shore up Obama’s base…not really, the people who this might have made a difference for were already going to vote for him.  So Obama gained $60 million and by that probably saved Romney $150 million in ads designed to appeal to the Santorum-voter base and not alienate the middle.

Gosh…how can I best kill my base and help Romney’s?

So instead of wasting all that money, he just had to have a throwaway line at a college graduation and he shored up the all the Santorum voters who were still on the fence.    “But Romney said he believes that marriage is between a man and a women, won’t that offend the middle?”  I doubt it.   While it’s not a 50-48 split in favor of gay marriage  that’s of an “anyone asked” poll, and registered voters are more conservative than “anyone asked” polls, and likely voters are more conservative than registered voters…so of the voting populace it’s probably still against gay marriage.  Further I think that of those 50% who are in favor of gay marriage, a heavy plurality if not a majority, can say, “I understand this is an issue with lots of religious, spiritual and personal values tied into it” and won’t have a knee jerk reaction against Romney who is in favor of civil unions.

This also hurts Obama.  Why?  Well because of those all important African-American and Hispanic votes.  Yes these are voting blocs that tend liberal, but they are also very socially conservative and very against gay marriage.  African-Americans in North Carolina voted 2 to 1 against gay marriage  and it was these two groups that killed gay marriage in California.  So will this mean that they will now vote for Romney?  Not necessarily, but these are two voting blocs with historically low turnout and if you cross them on an issue like this that statistically they’re very impassioned about it creates the distinct possibility that they may just stay home and not vote (which was already a major threat with African-American voters this election cycle, so this is tipping them over the edge to not vote). Overall I would say that this will translate to a around a 1 point advantage to Romney overall.  Not a lot, but let’s remember how many votes decided Florida.  It is a point that Obama couldn’t lose.

Granted there is a bit of guess work here, but I feel comfortable that my analysis is accurate.

So what does this do to the Electoral College?  Most pundits are pointing out that most of the swing states are socially conservative states.  Well, when you figure in the likely voter polls (as I did here), and that this shores up the Romney base and hurts the Obama base, I would say it moves Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota back into the toss up category and will probably give Romney the South.  So my guess is that if we took likely voter polls right now it would be somewhere in the ballpark of Obama 187 electoral votes to Romney’s 248 (meaning Romney would have to win Ohio and one other state, or some combination that leads to 22 votes).

This wasn’t a principled or pragmatic move.

And it gets worse for Obama.

RealClearPolitics has the current Senate battle at 46 Democrat, 46 Republican, 8 toss up.  This will probably move anywhere from 4-6 Senate seats from toss-up to lean Republican as most of those toss-up states are socially conservative.  And it could move 1-2 from leaning Democrat to toss up and 1-2 from likely Democrat to only lean Democrat.  In short Obama, in a tight election for control of the House may have just placed the straw that broke the jackass’ back.

Now you could say I’m reading too much into how this will effect the Senate, and you may be right, but if it convinces some of Obama’s base to stay home, as I think it will, this will hurt the Senate votes, especially in states where Romney is expected to win as Democrats will have even further reason not to go vote.  I’m not saying this move guarantees a 60 vote Republican Senate, but it certainly won’t hurt.  (And this will help the battle for GOP control of the House as well).

Again, if you’re voting against Obama and the Democrats only because of the gay marriage issue you’re an idiot.  But the fact of the matter is that both parties seemed filled with people who prove the rule that “People are Stupid” and right, wrong or indifferent you have to take the actions of these idiots when you’re in a leadership position (screw angelic, if all men were intelligent and rational no government would be needed).   Obama made a very stupid move not for principle but for a short-term gain that will hurt him in the long run.  Ignore what side of the gay marriage debate you’re on, this shows that this man is not a good leader.

The Teleprompter made me do it!

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Filed under Budget, Capitalism, Civil Liberties, Congress, Conservative, Debt, Election 2012, Evils of Liberalism, Faith, Gay Marriage, Gay Rights, Government is corrupt, Government is useless, Illegal Immagration, Illegal Immigration, Long Term Thinking, Mitt Romney, Obama, People Are Stupid, politics

Facts vs. Emotion in Campaign Season

It’s interesting to watch how both campaigns are beginning to work. And as usual, the old battle lines are being drawn. Democrats are playing to lies, half truths, and emotion and Republicans are more or less playing to facts and patriotism.

Let’s take a look at what I mean by taking a look at 4 ads that came out this weekend. Obama and his team came out with this ad hitting Romney for closing a steel plant in

It starts with a former steelworker saying that his company GST Steel, which is kind of odd because if you had a great reputation for quality I don’t think the company would ever have been in a position where Bain Capital could have bought it out. But there I am using logic, silly me all that matters is that picture of the old guy putting on the hard hat. I should really feel sorry for him. Then we have David Foster, Lead Negotiator for workers at GST Steel, saying that it was Romney’s fault. Okay let’s deal with that point piece by piece. First GST Steel closed in 2001 two years after Romney left Bain. Second, the reason GST Steel was closed because Bain kept trying to make the plant work but as the union refused to compromise on ANYTHING there was no way to make the company profitable.  Also let’s not forget that Bain offered to buy employees out and offered to give them new jobs, albeit non-union jobs at the profitable steel company…more on that later.  So in reality it was the union’s refusal to negotiate that killed GST…hmm who was the chief union guy?…oh, that would be the “Lead Negotiator for workers at GST Steel” David Foster. So Foster’s claim that Romney was to blame comes off a little hollow as it was really Foster’s inability to put the well being of employees ahead of the well being of the union. “They closed it down without any concern for the families or the community”…after you know, years of trying to make it profitable. And they “made as much money off it as they could”! Dear God! What monsters! They actually tried to make a profit. Sick, sick people.

They terminated health and life insurance…strangely that’s what happens when you go out of business.

“It was like watching an old friend bleed to death.” And given that it was the employees and their union that refused to bargain which was what really killed this company, the image of standing there, watching your friend bleed to death, and not just doing nothing, but continuing to stab him repeatedly is a very fit image. If anyone is to blame it’s not Romney.

My union refused to negotiate. I refused to take a non-union job. It’s all Romney’s fault.

I love the “Those guys are all rich” complaint. Not only is Obama still playing to the most base and uneducated class warfare, but it shows how dumb some people are. You can have millions. Hell you might even have billions…but that money doesn’t last to just give out, if you’re not making a profit, then that money won’t last forever. The implication from that line is that Romney and all the other Bain executives should have gone bankrupt to keep funding a plant that wasn’t making money.

“We view Mitt Romney as a job destroyer” and I view you as someone who doesn’t do math very well. Why? Well, 750 employees (you have to love how they claim he destroyed thousands…the typical Democratic propensity for lack of accuracy in numbers ) lost their jobs because of what Bain did…now last time I checked 750 was less than 6,000…8 times less if my math is correct. Also fun fact, the GST Steel plant was reopened in 2004 with somewhat fewer workers…thus proving Mitt Romney’s point that sometimes you need to let industries go bankrupt so things can be reset, reorganized, and redone and come back stronger than ever…it’s a term in capitalism known as creative destruction. Although from the Obama ad you would never know the plant reopened.  And also what’s with all the pictures of houses collapsing like it’s a post-Apocalyptic landscape?

“How could you care for the average working person if you felt that way?” Well jackass, you care because you want to actually build something that will last, that will make a profit and that will not need the constant handout that this ad was asking for. And then this loser looks like he’s about to cry. This, I can only guess, is supposed to make us feel for him. I will admit it does make me feel something—it makes me feel like slapping this loser so hard he grows up. For god sakes, you lost a job, it happens to the best of us, man-the-fuck-up and go get another job, don’t cry like a baby and bitch about the mean businessman who didn’t want to bankrupt himself to keep your losing company alive.

Strangely there are no facts quoted, no numbers given, no quotes used (other than comment by Romney which have no bearing on this issue). Hell, GST Steel pensions were underfunded by $44 million when it went bankrupt…that would have been a fact to use…of course I think all of that came after Romney left Bain and they were already stretching it as it was.

Meanwhile over on the Romney side, we have 6,000 jobs created…and again I think 6,000 is more than 750. You know if for every 750 fired we get 6,000 new jobs, bring on the massive firings (start with OSHA, TSA and the Post Office)! We’ll be at 3% unemployment in no time.

Now granted there aren’t a lot of facts in this one either (of course it’s not even half as long), but what facts there are are accurate (go back and watch the Obama ad again and see how many different numbers they use for how many people lost their jobs). And there is the fact that this is one of the companies that Bain helped out when Romney was in charge (as opposed to GST closing two years after Romney left).

The American Dream brought to you by Romney, Bain, and capitalism.

Also, instead of treating people as helpless who need Obama’s teat to survive, rather it shows hope and prosperity and that people can actually live on their own. The American Dream, which for most of us is to provide for ourselves through our work…for Obama it appears the American Dream means living high on the hog off of the rich and entitlement programs…just look at Julia.

Are they playing for emotion as well? Yeah, but you’ll notice it’s not hate and pity and vitriol, it’s hope for tangible things like a job and prosperity (rather than some ephemeral undefined “hope and change” that means nothing) and the best in us…

Also you have to love how Romney got this out less than 24 hours after Obama’s crappy ad…and Obama’s looks more professional. His campaign has clearly anticipated objections made by Obama and has the rebuttals already in the hopper. This is like watching a novice try and play Deep Blue.

But let’s look at how the groups that are not part of the official campaigns are working…

Please give me the quote where Romney threatened to end contraceptives…that would have been Santorum.
And insurance charges you more because the actuarial tables say you cost more…so to have equality it would just be that men would pay more (thanks)…I assume you want to make sure that car and home insurance companies stop it when they charge women less than men…because that would be unfair.

And he hasn’t threatened to get rid of Planned Parenthood …just public funding of it. If it’s so great a place, then I’m sure your rich liberal friends who want to be taxed more, will donate by the bucket load when Romney lowers their taxes.

And throwing women under the bus isn’t Romney’s style, MoveOn.org…it’s yours. Because let’s remember that MoveOn was formed to tell Republicans to Move On past Clinton’s numerous infidelities, because it was “just sex” (and sexual harassment lawsuit, accusation of rape, exploitation of a 20 year old woman who was incredibly naïve, perjury, suborning perjury, adultery…yeah it’s Republicans throwing women under a bus and waging a war on women).

Not one fact, not one reference, not one piece of truth. Everything I’ve come to expect from MoveOn.

Every one of Obama’s quotes are in context. Every fact is shown for quite a bit of time, and can be easily searched for. It’s interesting how, when the facts are on your side, you tend to use them.

Now, please don’t misunderstand me. Republicans are not saints, they are human, they come up with crappy misleading ads as well. But right now the GOP has the facts on their side and appears to be using them.

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Filed under Capitalism, Charity, Congress, Conservative, Corporate Welfare, Economics, Election 2012, Evils of Liberalism, Fear, Free Will, GOP, Government is corrupt, Government is useless, Individualism, Long Term Thinking, Mitt Romney, Obama, People Are Stupid, politics, Unions, Welfare