Daily Archives: May 1, 2012

10 reasons why libertarians have become a joke…

The ever so poorly named “Reason Magazine” has put out an article preposterously titled “5 Reasons Why

Libertarians have this really bad tendency to follow leaders blindly. Hayek, Von Misses, Rand and now this lunatic. All of them had good ideas, but none of them were divine prophets to never be questioned...

Conservatives Should Root For a Romney Defeat.”    Lately Libertarians have been getting more and more annoying with their embrace of full blown isolationism (which given how it has NEVER worked, means they’re either very, very stupid or in favor of tyrannies being free to do whatever evil they wish) and their recent and exceedingly naïve push for the gold standard as a cure all for all economic woes.  This is not the libertarian party I once knew of sound economic restraint and social liberalism…this is now a libertarian party of cowards and cranks.  So let me refute their 5 reasons to not vote for Romney.

1.  Reason claims because the Supreme Court will only overturn the individual mandate but leave the rest of Obamacare…because Romney and the Republicans don’t have the guts now to overturn the rest of the law we should let Obama stay in office and let a real reformer get in office in 2016 who will then overturn the law.  Common sense states that you would give some reasons to back this up but Reason’s article seemed quite lacking, in well, reason.

This is stupid for three reasons.  The first being that if the Supreme Court overturns one part, they’re probably taking it all out (Scalia’s comment about “you don’t expect us to go through this line by line do you”)…further it would require you to believe that the justices who are voting to overturn the mandate would leave all the economically disastrous parts that a mandate was a necessity to pay for.  The second is that Romney has promised to overturn the law in toto and will send that law on the first day in office to Congress, which if passed in the first week of his administration it has the most chance of getting through Congress with little disagreement.  The third being that, while the economically stupid issue of covering preexisting conditions needs to go, after another four years of Obama it will NEVER be overturned as no Congressmen, no matter how conservative, will have the guts to take away something that has been around for so long.

2.  Reason’s second claim is in two parts , first that you just can’t trust that evil flip-flopper Romney.  This is a claim that is without basis.  Romney’s changed his position on abortion…everything else is liberal lies.  Thank you libertarians for being dumb enough to believe liberal lies and immoral enough to repeat them…not to mention demonstrating liberal tendencies by not doing the research!

The second part of their reasons to not vote for Romney is that he will make our military second to none.  Oh, how terrible.  When did libertarianism become the philosophy of cowards and complicity in tyranny via our isolation.

3.  They don’t trust Romney to do away with Crony Capitalism as he says he will do (and as he did as much as he could with limited power in Massachusetts).  Why doesn’t Reason believe him…because he supported the financial bailout.  Which is kind of dumb.  Yes TARP was a horribly conceived and horribly executed program…but to do nothing as libertarians seem to suggest would have been equally stupid.  For years government conspired to force the financial sector to give out all those crappy loans (and yes they did force and threaten them with criminal and civil lawsuits if they didn’t give them out) so while the financial sector is not exactly saintly and has more than enough blame to go around on its own, the government is equally at fault.  But the libertarians argue that after you’ve stabbed someone in the kidney it’s their responsibility to heal themselves.  Huh?  Yes TARP should have been drastically smaller and shorter, it should have been more targeted and not an industry wide panacea, it should have probably been designed to cure the shock waver after one of the major banks went belly up to prevent a panic not preventing them all from failing, but you know what, not doing anything would have been as bad if not worse.  And yes Bush, Congress and the Fed deserve a lot of blame for not doing a more limited plan, but that does not mean an outsider who had no say at any level of the decision making process should take the blame for supporting what may be the lesser of two evils.  So I can’t fully hit Romney for being pragmatic and saying, yes we need TARP.

Reason also claims that calling China on its economic corruption is a bad thing.  I’m confused by their stance, probably again because Reason failed to state any reason for their belief and rather preferred to make an uninformed hitpiece.

4.  Oh and if we elect Romney then no “real conservative” will be able to run in 2016.  True, I look forward to Romney’s second term.  However, since Reason’s definition of true conservative is a person who holds to the insane dogma of Austrian economics and who is a complete coward in foreign policy.  You know a “real conservative” unlike that filthy Monetarist, strong foreign policy, fake conservative Ronald Reagan.  Somehow I’m not being swayed by Reason’s arguments.

5.  And their fifth argument, losing will allow the GOP to collapse…and theoretically realign itself…despite the fact that, realignment actually usually occurs when a party wins the White House (Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, McKinley, FDR…and I can’t think of a realignment that occurred when the party lost…but these are libertarians, the people who ignored all the economic panics, recessions and depressions caused by the gold standard and who completely failed to notice the utter failure of isolationism throughout all of history…no shock they don’t understand how realignments work historically).

So let me now respond with 5 reasons why libertarians should back Romney.

  1. He has a history of actually doing what libertarians like: cutting government and not raising taxes.
  2. Romney is actually endorsing the plan of reformers like Paul Ryan.  He also is backed by a whole team of some the best minds in every field…just check his website…unlike Reason which apparently is working off of innuendo and media lies. And again go to his website, no candidate in my life time has ever had so much data to review as Romney has provided…and it’s all great
  3. For supposed economic conservatives I don’t understand why libertarians would be so hostile to someone who is actually from the private sector.  This is the kind of guy who actually knows what he is doing.  He is not a career politician (he’s only ever held one other elected office for one term), thus he is not beholden to the bureaucracy or the party, he has no favors to fulfill which will actually help to end cronyism. Also cronyism occurs when you have something to gain…remind me how you actually bribe a man who is both rich and not avaricious (as judged by his overly generous charitable contributions).
  4. This country cannot survive another 4 years of Obama.  4 more years of over regulation, taxation, government abuse of power, extreme deficit spending, and insane union support will gut this country and if it doesn’t result in a global depression to make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park, the only reason that we won’t become a 2nd   rate power is because everyone else will fall faster than we do.
  5. Do you remember how reviled the Greens were in the Democratic party after handing the election to Bush (yes I’ll admit if Nader hadn’t run then Gore would have won)…well if you jackasses were to hand the election to Obama then you would be even more reviled and will guarantee the death of the libertarian strain in the Republican party (i.e. you’ll be handing the party to the social conservatives).

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Filed under Budget, Capitalism, Charity, Congress, Conservative, Corporate Welfare, Economics, Election 2012, GOP, Government is corrupt, Government is useless, Individualism, Long Term Thinking, Mitt Romney, Obama, People Are Stupid, politics, Problems with the GOP, Taxes, Tyranny, Unions

A look at the Electoral College

Most of us admit that the general election has started.  (I say most because those wacky Paulbots are still arguing Ron could get enough delegates and win the nomination…and they wonder why that clear analysis of basic realities makes the rest of us distrust their understanding of economics).   All sane people realize this is going to be Romney vs. Obama.

Which means that it is the Electoral College is almost all that matters now.  I say almost because turnout is also an important factor in swing states, and national polls can effect turnout.  They can also help influence fundraising (You don’t put up money for a complete loser if there is no hope whatsoever).  But the reality is that this is more or less all up to the Electoral College.

So where do we actually stand in the Electoral College?  Well Democrats keep railing about how Obama has the Electoral College locked up…but let’s actually look at some real numbers and facts.

According to RealClearPolitics the current count of electoral votes is Obama 227, Romney 170 with 141 in the toss up category.  Just in case you’ve forgotten it takes 270 votes to win.

Now there are some obvious problems with the RCP map right now.  For one it’s based on a majority of Registered Voter Polls not Likely Voter Polls. For those who don’t know Registered Voter Polls are almost always off from Likely Voter Polls (and 9 times out of 10 the likely voters are 2-3 points more in favor of the Republican than the registered voters).  Then there is the problem that when I do have likely voter polls it’s pretty much only one poll and I will admit that the more polls the better (which is why RCP is so good once all the major polls switch to likely voter pools)…but you have to make due with what you have.  And then there is the fact that there several of these polls that I am working with were taken before Santorum dropped out (give a 1-2 point boost to Romney post that) and he’ll probably get a small boost once Gingrich officially drops out (1 point maybe…which seems small…but a point can make all the difference…)

So, just looking at the current polls, admitting all of the flaws with looking at them, Romney is up in a lot of the swing states.


Oh and then there’s that other thing.  The one where you don’t actually have undecided voters on Election Day.  You have people who choose Obama, people who choose Romney and people who stay home or vote for a third party (both are pretty much the same thing).  And according to Dick Morris, based on a study he did for the Clinton’s back in the day, the undecided vote always breaks, almost 2-1, for the challenger against an incumbent president. So that would bring Romney’s tally up to 254 electoral votes (16 to go)

Now assuming 3% of the undecided vote will stay home or waste the vote, let’s look at how the vote breaks when you factor in that split of undecided votes fits into a few other swing states.

Now, splitting the undecided votes not only puts the other swing states I listed into the solid Romney camp but it appears to also put Pennsylvania barely into the plus Romney side (probably more solidly Romney as the most recent and reliable poll I can find on Pennsylvania is both pre-Santorum dropping out and a registered voter poll which actually means Romney should win by 2 to 3 points).  Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would put Romney over 270.  The fact that Ohio is also in striking distance makes Romney’s options even stronger.

Now some psycho Paulbots and the liberals who love them will suggest, and pray for, that Ron Paul will continue his quest to be Fuhrer.  The Paulbots want this because they live in a deluded universe where they think their geriatric lunatic will resonate with the America public with his call for complete isolation in foreign policy (cause that always works) and an economic plan from 1880…and don’t forget the traces of anti-Semitism.  Woo-hoo!  The Democrats want this because they think that a Paul run will pull off votes from Romney and let their socialist candidate win.  Slight problem with this is that Ron Paul actually does better with Democrats than he does with Republicans.  Who would have guessed the guy who proudly once blamed 9/11 on America would resonate well with the Democratic base.  So in reality, if the little lunatic wants to make a third party run, let him, he will siphon off more votes from Obama than he will from Romney which makes this an even easier victory.

So right now the likely voter polls (and some competent guesstimation) actually show the Electoral College leaning in Romney’s favor.  Are the numbers close? Yes.  Is it still too far out to be secure in these numbers?  Yes.  Do we still have a long way to go?  Yes.  Should Romney just relax and take a few months off?  No.

This is not a slam dunk yet…I have hopes it will be, but winds currently blow in Romney’s direction.  And given that Obama is repeatedly showing he has nothing to run on and that his campaign is just going to get increasingly desperate as time goes on (I expect to see ads discussing Romney’s bigamist ancestors by mid July)…given that we should see $5 a gallon gas midsummer, a continuing slowing economy and more unemployment…given that I expect more shrill and hateful statements from Michelle revealing their utter contempt for this nation…given all that I don’t see the polls swinging in Obama’s favor.  This is becoming Romney’s race to lose.

Also I would point out that two of the states in the “Lean Obama” category, when you factor in the undecided vote, are not as strong in the Obama camp that he shouldn’t worry (especially when one is Romney’s home state and the other is the state of a leading contender for VP).

So, admittedly this is all very speculative at present.  Why go over it?  Because liberals know they have nothing to actually run on so they’re trying to kill the hope of Obama’s defeat early on and ruin Romney’s momentum.  Don’t fall for it.  Actual poll numbers show Romney is doing well.  This is not over, but it is in our favor not theirs.

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Filed under Conservative, Election 2012, Evils of Liberalism, GOP, Mitt Romney, Obama, politics, Tyranny