So over the weekend Santorum claimed that Romney will not get 1144 delegate and this whole thing will go to a brokered convention (where this idiot seriously believes he’ll get the nomination).
So, I think the fact that it’s likely in my opinion to go to a convention. I think it’s increasingly likely, not certain, but increasingly likely, actually is a good thing for the Republican Party, and a good thing for our chances in the Fall.
Uh-huh. Is that because he won a victory in Louisiana and a net gain of five whole delegates? I hate to tell him this but while we have nothing this week we have Wisconsin (Romney +13), Maryland (no poll data, but it’s hideously unlikely to go to Santorum based on demographics) and D.C. (where once again Santorum showed his truly stellar ability to handle the responsibilities of being a chief executive and failed to even make the ballot…seriously two states he didn’t qualify for, one of them the state he lives in, and two states he didn’t submit a full slate of delegates. I’ve never heard of a campaign so incompetent. I wonder how long President Santorum will go before someone tells him he forgot to fill 3 cabinet positions?) Which, on a winner take all system would mean that Romney would have a gain (net and gross) of 100 delegates.
Now while Santorum doesn’t trust that iffy math stuff, I did see one Santorum supporter try to point out that there is no true winner take all system with any of the states. I’m not going to link the article to spare you their truly bad logic but let’s deal with that semi-intelligent argument.
There are very few states who have the vast majority of the their delegates as winner take all. In fact, as everyone tracking the delegates knows, every state comes with 3 RNC officials who are not bound by their states’ votes. Okay fair enough. And many of the supposedly winner-take-all states, like California, have some of their delegates as a state-wide winner take all and majority of their delegates tied to winner-take-all or proportional elections in congressional districts. This means that even though Romney is up 20 points in “winner-take-all” California, Santorum will probably come out with a dozen delegates from California after all.
But let’s look at how the race actually shapes up. According to RealClearPolitics Romney currently has 565 delegates. Of all the states that have already voted 1187 delegates were up for grabs and 1028 have been awarded (which means 159 are unbound and still up for grabs…keep this number in mind it will be sort of relevant later.
Now using the Washington Post’s more detailed description of how all the states allocate their delegates I’ve pulled up this chart with some healthy guesstimates on how Romney will fair in all of these states. (Pennsylvania and Indiana have delegates chosen by the State Party itself and I believe that these favor Romney in the extreme. Nebraska delegates are assigned by the party who use the primary as a reference…whatever that means. And Montana like Missouri delegates are unbound).
Now, a word on my logic. The states with polls I based mostly on those polls, with I would say a conservative estimate of Romney’s gains. The states without polls, I believe it was safe to assume Maryland, DC, Delaware, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Utah are in the Romney camp. I seriously underestimated Romney’s odds in the South and Midwest, making sure that the percentage of delegates was well below his average in those states from those areas that have already voted. This projection rather preposterously assumes that Romney will get NOTHING from Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, and none of the popularly elected delegates from Pennsylvania.
This projection gives Romney another 600 throughout the rest of the primary. Added to the 565 he already has…that makes for a Grand Total of…drum roll please…One-Thousand-One-Hundred-Sixty-Five! Which I believe is 21 over 1144.
Now I’m sure you could argue that my number might be overestimating how Romney will perform in this or that state. Okay, fair enough. But first is that over and above what he will gain from Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania? Unlikely. And even if it is, remember I said I said from the states that have voted there are still 159. Now some of these are from Missouri which voted heavily for Santorum…but it would be silly to think that Ricky is going to get all of them. Romney has been averaging 54% of delegates (and doing even better with the RNC officials which most of these votes are) so it would be safe to say that he will get 50 of those as well. So for this to be a brokered convention Rick would have to knock 71 delegates away from Romney. Go on look at that chart…where is he going to do that?
Some other things to consider. Each week Romney’s numbers keep going up. He’s running double digit leads in Gallup, Rasmussen, CBS polls. After his blowout on April 3rd those numbers are going to go higher. Now Santorum supporters keep banging the empty-headed drum of “If Newt would just get out of the race”…except Gallup actually looked into that…it would appear that Newt voters are more or less split down the middle with half having Romney as their second choice and half backing two lame horses and picking Santorum as their second choice. (Actually since most Santorum supporters are merely anti-Mormon bigots, it would make Newt a more viable candidate for Rick to drop out). So no matter what happens Romney is going to keep being in a better and better position. This will have a dual of effect of some people jumping on the bandwagon (I don’t get it, but it does happen) and Santorum voters getting discouraged and becoming more likely to stay home during the primary. With both, the vote keeps skewing more and more towards Romney…thus making finding those 71 net delegates to take from Romney a task so hopeless Don Quixote and Sisyphus would just give up.
But that doesn’t stop Rick. No. He keeps going on and never backing down. He says quite point blank that Obama is better then denies saying exactly what he said. Then he says Romney is the worst candidate (apparently Rick doesn’t own a mirror) and this time says that it’s “bullshit” to ask him why he said what he said (and he did say it). And in amongst all of this there is the claim that the media is biased in favor of Romney. Would that be right-wing media? You know with Rush, Beck, Hannity, Gretta, Levin, Reagan and Malkin so solidly in your camp they repeat your lies without question? Or the left-wing media which ignores that you said Protestants were servants of Satan, that you admired Jerry Sandusky AFTER his first accusation of child molestation, that if your daughter was raped and got pregnant from that terrible event it would be a “Gift from God,” that you actually did speculate on states outlawing contraceptives, that you clapped when someone suggested all non-Christians leave America, that you said women were not fit for combat, and in your book stated you hate everything America stands for. If Romney had said half of those things they would be run for hours every day for weeks on end until he had to resign in shame…but you Ricky, you get a pass (or you would until you were the nominee when the big guns come out and blow you out of the water…but as it’s impossible for you to win, you get a pass). The media already pick Romney apart, eager to take any of his quotes out of context to try and hit him. You have full statements which make me question your sanity and I have to dig to find some of them. And you think the media is backing Romney? Are you stupid or just crazy?
Probably crazy as he gets more outrageous every single day.
Watching Santorum’s campaign is like watching The Caine Mutiny where Humphrey Bogart’s character, Commander Queeg, has a complete mental breakdown while on the stand during the court-martial of officers for raising a very justified mutiny against him.
The only difference is that halfway through his breakdown Queeg realized how crazy he sounded. Not only has Santorum not realized what a nutjob he is, but his acolytes haven’t figured out that their holy messiah is a psychopath yet either.