Electoral College Predictions: A look from Mid October

Okay so let’s remember some basics.

Rule 1: The Morris rule—Undecided voters in a Presidential election (where one of the candidates is an incumbent) will always break for the challenger 2 to 1.

Rule 2: Some of these polls are skewed.  We need to look at the data to see if this is going on and correct for that.  I’m not going to rip into numbers of these polls but keep in mind that you should move a point or two on these polls.

Rule 3: Libertarians are pulling from Obama more than they’re pulling from Romney, so any time we consider the 3rd party candidates it’s going to hurt Barry.  Also with the winds of change blowing in Romney’s favor Dems will be more willing to split the party at the last minute for a third party than Republicans (who are picking up libertarian votes)

Rule 4: Discount any poll from before the first presidential debate and admit that it takes at least 3 days before you see any real change in the numbers.

So let’s start with the base numbers from Real Clear Politics as of 10/14

Now Suffolk Polling has said that they’re no longer going to poll in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia because those are obviously going to Romney…but let’s take a look at the numbers just in case.

Yep, the only thing keeping Barry afloat in those states are old polls numbers (in Virginia old poll numbers from some really questionable polls)…Romney is winning Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia…and their collective 57 electoral votes.  New count Obama 201-Romney 248

Now with New Hampshire, the post debate polls are sparse but very much in Romney’s favor. (Especially when you factor in the undecideds splitting for Romney)  So another 4 votes to Romney.  Obama 201-Romney 252

Same with Colorado.  Even CBS can’t BS their numbers enough to show Obama in the lead here.  So another 9 to Romney. Obama 201-Romney 261

Now let’s flip over to Nevada and Iowa because right now they have the same problem with numbers.

Both these states show Obama up.  Also both polls include crappy PPP numbers–correcting for that Nevada averages only +1 Obama, 6% undecided, and Iowa averages +2.25 Obama with 6.25% undecided. When you factor in the undecided split that puts Nevada in the Romney column and Iowa dead even.  But when you adjust for the oversampling of Democrats, Iowa is also in the Romney column.  It will be close but that’s another 12 votes.  Obama 201-Romney 273….oh wait did Romney just cross 270 without even worrying about Ohio.  Yes, yes he did.  Romney wins.   But let me rub some salt in the wounds of Democrats and go through the rest of the states.

Now the only poll we have post-debate (when you account for the need for a few days before you actually see a change in polls) for Wisconsin is the day after the debate (which I’m sorry but I don’t think it fully set in how badly Obama had done yet).  Also what’s odd about this poll is that there is literally no third party vote.  That’s never going to happen, there are always going to be third party voters (and like I said, they’re going to pull more from Obama than from Romney).  It’s also telling with how close the polls are from the two most biased polling firms.  I know I’m going out on a limb on this one, but I think Wisconsin is going red.  Obama 201-Romney 283.

Okay let me be gracious to Obama here for a minute.

I have heard that the tide is turning in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and I hope they are, I hope they do go red—but the limited polling I have doesn’t show that to me yet.  Let’s give them to Obama.  Obama 237-Romney 283.

And finally we get to the all annoying state, Ohio.  The state we have heard endlessly about.

Okay, first let’s take out the PPP numbers since we all know they’re bunk.  That takes the average to Obama +1.4.  Factor in the 6% undecideds and it’s almost a dead heat.  Factor in the time it takes to see a bounce in the numbers post-debate, it’s leaning toward Romney.  Factor in Biden saying he wanted to close down plants in Ohio during the debate (remember he said we didn’t need any more tanks, tanks made in Ohio) that’s also going to shift the needle just a little.  The winds of change are blowing in Romney’s favor and Ohio will be red this year.  Obama-237—Romney 301.

Is that the final count?
Nope.

Why?  Because Romney is ahead in one of Maine’s Congressional districts…and because Maine splits its electoral votes that means Romney will probably pick up yet another vote.

Final Count

Obama 236 Romney 302

(In case you’re wondering right now I’m predicting a 50-52 seat GOP majority in the Senate, with Independent from Maine King caucusing with the GOP, so 51-53 seats…which means we only ever need to find 7 blue dog Dems. To get cloture.)

Now what could change this?  Not much in Obama’s favor.  Biden may have stemmed the bleeding among the base, but his bizarre behavior turned off undecided voters, energized the GOP base to vote him out and opened up a whole new can of worms with him saying they had no idea about the situation in Libya.  Yeah, Ryan could have been more relaxed or more aggressive…but Joe, Joe was f’ing psychotic.

And the other two debates are going to be in Romney’s favor.  Yeah Obama theoretically does better in town hall performances…but not really.  Without his teleprompter he’s still going to be clueless (he left the stage at the first debate thinking he had won, even Chris Matthews wasn’t that deluded).   This is actually going to be bad for Obama.  I’ve seen Romney work a crowd, he may not be personable behind a teleprompter, but he’s charismatic in person…and in a town hall debate you’ll see how people react positively to him, and that’s bad for Obama.  Besides it has been revealed from several sources that Obama plans to be more aggressive in the town hall debate…aggressive from a class act like Romney comes off well…aggressive from a arrogant ass like Obama is not going to come off well.

And even if Obama manages to pull off a tie in the second debate, the fact is that the third debate is on foreign policy.  Tell me Mr. President.  How’s Greece going?  Oh they’re about to go belly up.  Europe? The same.  Syria?  You haven’t done much, oh that’s a shame.  Please, Mr. President explain what flexibility are you looking for with tyrant and human rights abuser Putin?  Oh and what did you know and when did you know it when it comes to Libya?  Oh and you said because Bin Laden is dead Al-Qaeda is on the run…could you please explain that to me and your Ambassador to Libya how that statement in any way, shape, or form has anything to do with reality?  No?  Okay, let’s move onto arming the Mexican cartels.  The third debate is going to be a slaughter.  Even more so than the following interpretation of the first debate:

There is no win for Obama.  He’s already used every insult he can against Romney, none have worked.  And the Republicans have yet to go full force in the attack on Obama.  We have yet to see commercials from the families of the dead US soldiers whose death prompted Obama to apologize for American actions?  Anyone seen commercials from Brian Terry’s family?  Anyone seen a commercial with pictures of the dead Ambassador?  Not saying we have to go there, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg for failures of Obama that the GOP still has left in its arsenal.  Obama can only, at best hold his ground, which isn’t enough to, Romney can still pick up more votes and he will.  There is no way for Obama to win this.

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5 Comments

Filed under American Exceptionalism, Congress, Conservative, Economics, Election 2012, Evils of Liberalism, GOP, Mitt Romney, Obama, Paul Ryan, politics

5 responses to “Electoral College Predictions: A look from Mid October

  1. Northie

    Are you kidding me?

    I’d be thrilled if you’re right, but I have a hard time believing that Mitt pulls out Virginia, Colorado, New Hamphire, Iowa and Nevada… I think the odds favor him pulling out maybe two of those five.

    Really hard to see a viable path without Ohio, and it’s hard to see Ohio going to Romney at this point. But if Romney beats Obama decisively in the next debate, then maybe things start breaking the way you predict, but even in a Romney victor, your scenario is pretty damn Rosey.

    • I’m going to stand by my numbers. Romney has VA, CO, and NH down. Granted you have to factor in that the Iowa and Nevada numbers are being skewed to the left, but everyone seems to admit this–the pollsters are using the unbelievably high Democratic turnouts of 2008 as the base for their models–and there is no way Obama is going to be able to drum up that insane level of enthusiasm again. If you use a 2004 model, or even a midway point between the 2, Romney comes out ahead in all those states.

      Part of me is fairly sure that my “rosy” predictions will actually seem a little conservative come election night.

  2. Northie

    Also how do you get to 50-52 in the Senate?

    The best I can get to is 50 and the requires us holding IN, AZ, MA and NV, all of which are winnable, but it’s unlikely we hold all 4. Then we have to win in ND and MT, both of which are doable, and I think favor us, but they are close. Then obviously we get NE. But even them we still have to pick up one more seat to get to 50, I’m thinking of the remaining races, the best bet is in WI. So that would get you to 50, but that’s some hard math to get there.

    And King will only caucus with Republicans if they have a majority without him, and even then I’m not sure. Although he seems like enough of an opportunist to consider it.

  3. Well I thought the 2008 model wouldn’t be repeated because I just couldn’t believe that many people could fall for it a second time. I thought we would see something more along the lines of the 2004 model, I was wrong.

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