Tuesday Review: Even when Ricky wins…he loses…

Wow, Santorum effectively tied Romney and Gingrich in the Bible Belt.  I am impressed.  And he won 9, count them 9!

The Hare (left) gloated he won last night. Meanwhile the Tortoise (right) increased his lead.

more delegates than Romney did in those states.  And with Romney up 256 delegates before Alabama and Mississippi, Rick is really making a great deal of headway.  Yeah so Romney won (9) delegates in American Samoa and (9) in Hawaii last night…which if my math is correct means that Romney is now up (260) delegates.  This on top of Saturday’s victory where Ricky got 33 delegates from Kansas and Romney got 39 from all the Saturday contests.  Truly a victory when your opponent widens his lead on you.  Given how Rick gets further and further behind with every “victory” I think I have figured out who should be his chief spokesperson…does anyone remember “Baghdad Bob”?

(Also let’s ignore the fact that the margin that Santorum “won” by is almost exactly the percentage of Democrats that voted in each state according to the exit polls.  Yes, because rallying Obama Democrats in the primary is truly a sign that you can win Ricky.)

The best moment of Santorum’s “victory” speech was when he said

“Everybody is talkin’ about all the math, all the things that this race is inevitable.  Well for someone who thinks this race is inevable [sic]* he spent a whole lot of money for being inevitable [he slurred that one too].”  (Yeah he spent money and tied you in area of the country where you should have beaten him by high double digits. Also notice Rick he can raise money, unlike you.)

*(the man makes W. look like an orator of Cicero’s caliber).  You know I distrust overly skillful orators like Obama, FDR and Hitler…but that doesn’t mean I want to go to the other extreme of a babbling idiot who graduated from the Rainman school of rhetoric.

But back to his quote.  Yes.  None of that new fangled “math” stuff.  (Are you surprised he is winning states that would probably win out at the top of the question “Which state is Jeff Foxworthy talking about?”)  I’ll lay even money that Santorum thinks the 3 R’s are all spelled with “R.”  Yes this is the man you want balancing the budget…because there’s no math involved in that.

Meanwhile in reality let’s take another look at the standing of the candidates…(numbers from RealClearPolitics)

.                                       R          S             G             P

Iowa                               6            7            0            1

New Hampshire        7            0            0            3

South Carolina          2            0            23            0

Florida                        50            0            0            0

Nevada                        14            3            6            5

Minnesota                   2            17            1            9

Colorado                      12            17            2            1

Maine                            9            3            0            7

Michigan                      16            14            0            0

Arizona                        29            0            0            0

Wyoming                     12            7            1            6

Washington                25            7            0            8

Georgia                        19            3            52            0

Ohio                               38            21            0            0

Tennessee                   16            29            10            0

Virginia                        43            0            0            3

Oklahoma                    13            14            13            0

Massachusetts            38            0            0            0

Idaho                             32            0            0            0

North Dakota            7            11            2            8

Alaska                           8            7            3            6

Vermont                      9            4            0            4

Kansas                        7            33            0            0

Guam                            9            0            0            0

Northern Marianas  9            0            0            0

Virgin Islands             7            0            0            1

Alabama                        11            19            12            0

Mississippi                 12            13            12            0

Hawaii                           9            5            0            3

American Samoa       9            0            0            0

Unpledged RNC       16            2            4            2

Which places Romney currently at 496

And to remind you…

Let’s project into the future.  Of the 8 Winner-Take-All states left Romney is ahead in 7 of them.   Puerto Rico (23 delegates), D.C. (19), Delaware (17), Utah (40), Maryland (37), California (172) and New Jersey (50).  Those Winner-Take-All states have a total of 358 delegates between them.  So added to Romney’s current 496 delegates…that would bring the total to 854.  In other words he will have almost 80% of the 1144 needed locked down.

Now let’s look at some of the proportional other states that aren’t winner take all.  Now we all know that Romney does well in New England and the North East.  So Rhode Island (19), Connecticut (28) and New York (95), a total of 142 delegates, it would be safe to say that Romney will take half of those delegates (71) bringing the total to 925.

He is also doing well in Illinois (69) and Oregon (28)…again let’s play it safe and give him half (48)…for a total of 973.

Which would mean, that again playing it safe he would still have to get 171 votes from the 692 remaining votes (not counting a lot of random unpledged delegates)…or about 25% of the other delegates…less if he does better than my only giving him half of the states we know he’ll do well in.  Given that he got 28% of the delegates Alabama and Mississippi gave out today in the states he “lost” (i.e., did much better than anyone would have given him credit for 2 months ago).

The word, Rick, is inevitable.  After you learn to say it, you may want to look up what it means.

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Filed under Election 2012, GOP, Long Term Thinking, Mitt Romney, politics, Problems with the GOP, Rick Santorum

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